Complex Spring Like Storm to Move into South Dakota

A complex storm system is set to move across parts of the Midwest starting tonight and lasting through Friday night. This system brings a mix of rain, thunderstorms, freezing rain, snow, and gusty winds, creating challenging conditions for residents and travelers alike. The exact intensity and timing of precipitation remain uncertain, making it essential to stay informed.

The storm system will track across the region starting tonight and continuing through Friday night. It is expected to bring a combination of rain, freezing rain, and snow. However, there is low confidence in the exact amounts of precipitation and in the timing of the transition among the precipitation types. There remain questions about the storm's intensity, relatively warm temperatures in some areas affecting snow accumulation, and how thunderstorms develop towards the south, with impact moisture to the north over South Dakota.

During Thursday's forecast model runs, the three major models paint different pictures of snowfall amounts. The American (GFS) model is showing amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the northeast down towards south-central South Dakota, with a narrow band of higher amounts over three inches from near Winner up towards Chamberlain, Miller, and Webster. The Canadian (GEM) model shows similar output but has accumulations to the east of the GFS model. The European (ECMWF) is in disagreement, with snowfall amounts mainly under one inch through Saturday morning.

As of Thursday morning, the official snowfall forecast using data from these models and others is for one inch of snow or less from the northeast down toward south-central and southwest South Dakota, with a few pockets seeing isolated higher amounts.

Ahead of the colder air, temperatures will support rain and even thunderstorms. Late tonight, mainly after midnight, a few thunderstorms in the far southeast corner could become strong to severe with gusty winds and hail.

Here is a look at precipitation timing across different communities across the state. If you would like more details on your location in South Dakota, you can find that on our Local Weather pages.

Northwest winds are expected to increase into the 30-45mph range by Thursday night for the west and spread eastward by Friday afternoon.