Will South Dakota Have a White Christmas
- WeatherSD
- 2 hours ago
- 2 min read
South Dakota’s winter weather has been anything but predictable this season. After a series of snowstorms and cold temperatures starting in November, the state’s weather has taken a sharp turn. Instead of the usual snowy, cold end to December, many areas are now facing dry conditions, heightened fire danger, and brown, snowless ground. This shift raises a common question for residents and visitors alike: Will South Dakota have a white Christmas this year?
Let’s explore the forecast, temperatures, snowpack, and the historical snow-on-the-ground chances for Christmas to understand what this holiday season might bring.
Recent Weather Patterns in South Dakota
The early winter months brought consistent snow and cold temperatures across much of South Dakota. Snowstorms repeatedly blanketed the state, creating a classic winter scene. However, as December progressed, the weather flipped dramatically:
Dry conditions replaced the snow, especially in the central and eastern parts of the state.
Fire dangers increased due to the lack of moisture and dry ground.
Snow cover diminished in many areas, leaving brown patches of earth visible.
Snowpack is a key factor in determining whether a white Christmas is likely, and today's forecast will further reduce the snowpack. Dry conditions under partly cloudy skies with afternoon temperatures into the 30s for the northeast, where the snowpack is deeper to the 40s and 50s in the southeast and northwest, to the 50s and 60s in the southwest. Won't be surprised if a few locations in the southwest do reach the 70s.
A cold front will bring temperatures down on Tuesday with highs only into the 20s and 30s across the northeast, to the 30s and 40s for the northwest and southeast, and again, the warm spot, the 50s and a few 60s for the southwest.
Looking ahead, no storms will help the snowpack, as the major forecast models currently show no chance of new snow accumulation through Christmas.
Years' Pass Averages for a White Christmas
A white Christmas is traditionally defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th. South Dakota’s chances of this vary by region:
Eastern South Dakota has historically had a 60 to 75 percent chance of a white Christmas.
Western South Dakota sees about a 50 percent chance.
Given the current dry conditions and warming temperatures, the likelihood of a white Christmas this year is lower than usual, especially in the south and west. But don't worry, if you are a fan of wintry weather, next week looks to have some changes in the temperatures and possibly chances for snow.
